The remnants of Hurricane Polo are tracking northward along the New Mexico-Texas border. They carry a historic moisture plume that threatens major portions of Texas with severe multi-day rainfall and flash flooding. Moving out of Mexico near El Paso, the atmospheric system is interacting with an incoming cold front to create a high-risk weather event across the Southern Plains.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott responded by officially activating state emergency response resources alongside local officials. They are preparing for the impending severe weather. State assets have been pre-positioned to assist communities bracing for torrential downpours.
"I have activated additional state emergency response resources ahead of heavy rainfall and flash flooding," Governor Abbott stated in a release. "State resources are available to support local officials. Texans should monitor local forecasts, avoid flooded roadways, and heed guidance from state and local officials."
Historic Moisture Plume and Rainfall Totals
Meteorologists note that the atmospheric moisture accompanying the former hurricane is near or above record levels for late September. This moisture covers the Southwest, Texas, and Oklahoma. Rainfall rates are expected to reach up to 2 inches per hour in localized areas, raising concerns for dry washes, slot canyons, and burn scars.
Forecasters anticipate widespread totals of 3 to 5 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts possible, across major urban hubs and surrounding regions. These areas include Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and the Rio Grande Valley. According to National Weather Service data from Brownsville, deep South Texas and Northern Ranchland counties could see up to 4 to 6 inches near the border starting Thursday, October 1, as Polo’s remnants collide with Gulf moisture.
Before the incoming rain, the region experienced an extreme heatwave. McAllen recorded 66 consecutive days of triple-digit temperatures and 97 days reaching 100 degrees or higher in 2026, paired with an exceptionally dry summer. Because of this prolonged dry spell, forecasters warn that initial rainfall could mix with accumulated road oils and debris, creating exceptionally slick driving conditions.
Timeline of the Severe Weather Threat
The slow-moving tropical moisture will sustain an active weather pattern through the end of the week:
- Wednesday: The flood threat expands eastward into Texas, Oklahoma, and Colorado. Severe storms could produce strong winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes alongside heavy downpours.
- Thursday: Heavy rainfall targets a wide swath of Texas, including Dallas, the Hill Country, and deep South Texas counties like Brooks, Jim Hogg, Starr, and Zapata.
- The Weekend: While the direct organization of Hurricane Polo will dissipate, its lingering moisture will merge with an eastward-moving cold front. This will sustain active weather systems across the Southern Plains and Southeast.
Flash Flood Safety and Preparedness
Emergency management officials emphasize the critical safety motto during major flood events: "Turn around. Don’t drown."
Drivers are strongly urged never to attempt crossing flooded roadways. Water depth can be deceptively difficult to measure, particularly at night. Moving water can easily submerge or sweep away vehicles in minutes. Residents living in flood-prone locations should monitor local National Weather Service alerts closely, take flash flood warnings seriously, and prepare to move to higher ground if a flash flood emergency is declared.
