Indian refiners elevated Middle Eastern crude oil shipments to a daily average of 3 million barrels, marking a strategic shift away from Russian imports according to tracking data from Kpler. Total crude imports into the country reached 5.3 million barrels daily, rising by 600,000 barrels per day from August figures and climbing by 700,000 barrels per day compared to the previous year.
While Middle East deliveries returned to pre-war volumes, shipments from Russia dropped from 2.1 million barrels daily in August to 1.75 million barrels daily in September. Despite this month-over-month decline, Russian supplies continue to hold the largest individual share of Indian crude purchases. India stands as the second-largest buyer of Russian crude globally behind China, with Russian barrels making up nearly half of its overall oil purchases in recent months.
Drivers Behind the Middle East Crude Surge
The recovery in Middle Eastern supplies has been supported by higher flows from Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, alongside improving crude movements through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Sumit Ritolia, senior manager for oil markets and refining at Kpler, the return to pre-conflict levels follows disruptions caused by regional geopolitical tensions.
- Iraq: Contributed around 575,000 barrels per day, seeing an increase of more than 250 percent compared to August.
- Saudi Arabia: Supplied approximately 566,000 barrels per day, up about 63 percent from the previous month.
- United Arab Emirates: Maintained steady volumes, contributing nearly 480,000 barrels per day.
- Kuwait: Delivered about 331,000 barrels per day.
Ship-to-ship transfers and other logistical arrangements have also assisted Indian refiners in rebuilding their Middle Eastern purchase portfolios as regional supply availability improves. Refinery maintenance has eased, allowing domestic processors to run at high utilization rates amid healthy domestic fuel demand and strong international product margins.
Geopolitical Pressures and Russian Oil Imports
The rise in Gulf supplies has coincided with a sharp decline in Russian crude arrivals, falling to their lowest levels since April. This reduction comes as Russian crude faces continuous pressure from Western trade policies and diplomatic engagement, encouraging Indian refiners to diversify their sourcing options.
“Russia remains a central part of India’s crude import basket, and we do not see the latest decline as India moving away from Russian barrels altogether,” noted Sumit Ritolia, emphasizing that economics, availability, and refinery compatibility will continue to drive purchasing decisions.
Industry analysts point out that while Indian refiners are exercising caution regarding potential trade friction, their procurement strategy remains flexible. Alongside Middle Eastern and Russian sources, Indian refiners have incorporated barrels from Venezuela, Nigeria, the United States, and Brazil into their broader energy basket.
Implications for Global Energy Markets
The recalibration of India’s import channels highlights the adaptability of major Asian energy consumers navigating complex macroeconomic and geopolitical environments. As regional trade routes stabilize and refiners balance long-term term contracts with spot-market flexibility, global crude flows continue to adjust dynamically to shifting regulatory landscapes and supply chain realities.
