Robinhood Derivatives has launched an event prediction market for the professional tennis match between Japan’s Shintaro Mochizuki and Portugal’s Jaime Faria. The match is scheduled for September 28, 2026, in the qualification round of the ATP Japan Open Tennis Championships in Tokyo.
The derivative contracts are offered through KalshiEX LLC. They allow traders to take positions on the match outcome. Each winning contract pays out $1 if the selected player wins after play begins. Payouts process within one hour after the event resolves.
Contract Terms and Resolution Rules
Specific market rules dictate how unexpected match disruptions are handled. If the match does not occur due to an injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation before play starts, the contract resolves to a fair price determined by exchange rules. If the match is delayed or postponed, the prediction market remains open for up to two weeks until the rescheduled match finishes.
Robinhood and KalshiEX maintain strict eligibility prohibitions regarding who can participate in these trades. The following groups are prohibited from trading on the match contract:
- Current players, coaches, and staff of the governing tennis association or tournament.
- Paid employees of the league, tournament organizers, and team owners.
- Immediate family members and household members of restricted individuals.
- Employees of designated Source Agencies.
- Individuals holding material, non-public information about either participant or the match.
Match Analysis and Player Profiles
The match features two 23-year-old players entering the tournament with contrasting season records. Jaime Faria enters the Tokyo qualification round ranked No. 68 in the ATP rankings, holding a 48-24 match record in 2026 and 8 career titles. Shintaro Mochizuki, playing in his home country, is ranked No. 125 with a 21-30 record this season.
The head-to-head series between Mochizuki and Faria is tied at 1-1 across two previous meetings. Faria claimed their first meeting on clay. Mochizuki won their most recent encounter on grass in June 2025. Tokyo’s outdoor hard courts mark the first time the pair will meet on this surface.
