The 2026 hurricane season features a stark contrast between the Atlantic and Pacific basins, driven primarily by a record-breaking El Niño event. While the Pacific Ocean experiences a surge of intense storms, the Atlantic basin remains unusually calm with no hurricanes formed as of late September.
Only seven named tropical storms have developed in the Atlantic so far this year, and none have reached hurricane strength. In contrast, the Pacific Ocean has seen 18 tropical storms and hurricanes, including eight hurricanes, which is well above normal activity levels.
Factors Influencing the Quiet Atlantic Season
Former National Hurricane Center specialist Stacy Stewart, who now teaches meteorology, explained that El Niño is a major factor but not the sole cause of the Atlantic’s quiet season. She highlighted additional suppressors of storm development in the basin, including drought conditions in Ethiopia, dry air, and Saharan dust.
The Role of El Niño
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO). It is a natural climate phenomenon marked by above-average sea surface temperatures and weakened trade winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Its impact is far-reaching, resulting in the global redistribution of temperature and precipitation.
In the Atlantic Ocean, El Niño generally lessens hurricane activity by increasing vertical wind shear. This atmospheric condition makes it much harder for thunderstorms to organize into hurricanes. Conversely, El Niño often increases hurricane activity in the eastern and central Pacific basins. Warmer waters provide more energy, and atmospheric conditions become far more favorable for storms to form there.
Looking Ahead at Climate Predictions
When forming seasonal outlooks, scientists consider multiple factors and parameters using various climate models and historical trends. El Niño continues to serve as the primary driver for predictive modeling due to its profound impact on climate variability.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center noted that the El Niño event will likely continue influencing global weather patterns through the winter months. Seasonal outlooks provide probability-based predictions of overall activity rather than specific daily forecasts. However, scientists emphasize that changing environmental variables mean coastal communities must always stay prepared.
