U.S. stocks are steadily approaching a historic milestone, closing in on a fifth consecutive year of gains in the current bull market. According to a comprehensive analysis by Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner, the market advance has reached an impressive 119%, propelled by robust corporate earnings growth and persistent demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The market is officially on track to become just the seventh bull market since the 1950s to complete at least four full years, with that threshold targeted for October 12, 2026. While an 119% advance is notable, it still sits below historical giants like the 401% gain recorded during the 2009-2020 rally and the massive 582% surge spanning from 1987 to 2000.
Historical Context of the Current Rally
Historical data compiled by Lerner reveals that the average gain across bull markets since the 1950s sits at 184%. Out of the 10 previous bull markets within this measurement period, six successfully lasted longer than four years. Historical patterns indicate that markets reaching their fifth year typically deliver an average return of 12% and a median return of 15% during that specific year.
Supporting this view, insights from Goldman Sachs highlight that the S&P 500 has surged roughly 95% since the bull market began near the end of 2022. This performance places today’s rally firmly within the top 10% of all bull markets recorded since 1928 at a comparable point in their respective cycles.
Corporate Earnings and AI Drive Growth
Unlike past speculative bubbles, such as the dot-com boom of the late 1990s, the current market advance is fundamentally backed by real corporate earnings growth and heavy capital expenditure in AI infrastructure. Major technology leaders including Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Broadcom have successfully translated widespread AI enthusiasm into tangible revenue expansion and record cash flows.
Recent quarterly financial reports further validate the underlying health of corporate America. S&P 500 companies have displayed exceptional momentum, characterized by widespread earnings beat rates and accelerating growth paces. Early reporting periods for second-quarter results indicate that total earnings are tracking significantly higher year-over-year, beating analyst projections by wide margins.
What Lies Ahead for Investors
Although elevated valuations-including the Shiller CAPE ratio-remain near historical highs, financial strategists point out that rich valuations have historically translated into more modest future returns rather than marking immediate market tops. Market momentum has consistently defied skeptics who anticipated that inflation scares, aggressive interest rate hikes, and persistent recession warnings would derail the rally.
As corporate earnings continue to surprise to the upside and operational resilience remains strong across diverse sectors, history suggests that the current bull market still has solid foundational support as it marches toward its fifth year.
